——专访巴基斯坦前总统穆沙拉夫

巴基斯坦建国以来，文官政府与军政权交替执政的现象一直持续。在巴基斯坦62年的历史中，军政府执政长达33年，其中穆沙拉夫当政9年。

巴基斯坦陆军参谋长穆沙拉夫于1999年10月12日发动了军事政变，17小时后实现军事接管，当时巴基斯坦总理谢里夫企图将穆沙拉夫解职并阻止他乘坐的航班在卡拉奇机场降落。穆沙拉夫当即命令部队占领卡拉奇机场，当航班成功着陆时所剩燃料仅能维持7分钟航程。

当天晚上10点15分，穆沙拉夫解散了谢里夫政府，夺取了巴基斯坦政权。

穆沙拉夫是个备受争议的人物，有人认为他是个独裁者，有人认为他是个伟大的领。2006年穆沙拉夫出版英文自传《在火线上》，该书的出版引发读者对其政绩的质疑。但是穆沙拉夫是如何评价自身的功过得失呢？这位前巴基斯坦领导人又是如何看待中巴关系的呢？

大家好，欢迎收看《惊言堂》，我是主持人秦忆。本期节目我们很荣幸邀请到了巴基斯坦前总统穆沙拉夫将军。

嘉宾介绍

巴基斯坦前总统佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫1943年出生在印度，幼年时随家人迁居到巴基斯坦。1961年进入巴基斯坦军事学院学习，1999年10解散国家和省议会，同时接管国家最高政权。

2001年六月穆沙拉夫宣誓就任总统并于2007年成功连任，一年后的2008年穆沙拉夫宣布辞职。

主：穆沙拉夫将军，欢迎作客《惊言堂》。

嘉：谢谢

主：现在回头来看，你认为你对巴基斯坦甚至整个世界作出了哪些贡献？

嘉：谈到我对巴基斯坦所做的贡献，我感到十分自豪。在巴基斯坦每个领域我都有所建树。我们首先实现了经济的平稳发展，随后进入经济增长期，我们用了七至八年的时间将巴基斯坦从一个衰败的国家建设成为"新钻11国"中的一个新兴市场。我们把巴西、俄国、印度、中国

称为"金砖四国"，随之有人提出"新钻11国"的概念。巴基斯坦也是其中之一，在过去七八年里，巴基斯坦白手起家，这就是我们取得的成就。巴基斯坦每个社会发展部门都取得了进步，比如医疗卫生、教育部门、社会发展、通信部门和基础设施建设，公路、港口、航空、机场、水坝、运河建设被废弃的运河。我们也没有放弃文化建设，致力于保存巴基斯坦的文化遗产。我认为我们采取总揽全局的战略，在每个领域都取得了进步。我给政府下了一个定义适用于每个国家，特别是第三世界国家，这是我自己的想法，而不是借鉴任何别人的意见，我认为政府和领导人的首要任务就是确保国家安全，安全是首要问题，没有安全，就没有国家。国家安全要从内外两个方面来保障，字确保国家安全之后在来谈社会的进步和发展。对巴基斯坦来说社会进步和发展，包括发展农业、水利工程、通信等等，还有社会福利和人民福祗。这包括教育、卫生、消除贫困，我把这些作为我的目标。国家的每个重要领域我都有所建树，但在各个领域的成就有所不同。有些方面做得比较成功，有些方面相对欠缺。对于那些不太成功的地方，我感到很失望。但这就是生活。

主：如果让你选择其中的一个失误，哪个是你认为最失败的地方？

嘉：我想是我们国家出现的极端主义。在这个问题上我曾经制定战略减少极端主义活动的发生，这是我的一个高级别战略，防止像清真寺这样的宗教场所被人利用，极端分子用喇叭鼓动群众参与极端活动，编写分发书籍和小册子宣扬派系争端、宗教仇恨，我们打击这些活动，我们禁止这些书籍的撰写、印刷和销售，我们禁止并且取缔极端组织，加强对教义的监管。因为有些教义会导致宗教派系之间争端升级。还有宗教学校的问题，宗教学校是巴基斯坦的一个现实问题，他有其自身优点，他为将近100万青少年提供免费食宿。这些宗教学校必须被纳入主流社会，不能轻易地关闭学校，他们发挥的积极作用应该鼓励把他们纳入主流社会，倡导他们在宗教之外，更多地教授学生其他技能，这样学生在毕业以后就可以从事专业领域的工作。这是我反极端主义的策略。此外改善人民的经济状况是应对极端主义的核心。如果一个人能自食其力养活儿女，家庭和睦，前途有望他就会怡然自得，不会走上歧路。是贫困和无知导致了极端主义，我采取了着眼全局的策略，但成效并不显著。

主：在你的自传里，你提到作为政治领导人，有时必须面对一种强烈的孤独感。请问这种孤独感指的是什么？你在什么情况下会有这种感觉？

嘉：当我们讨论如何应对各种问题时，大家各执一词，提出不同解决方案。就在那一刻，如果我问你觉得该怎样解决，他们不会直接回答，他们只会说可以这样处理或者那样处理，至于应该怎么办，大家都默不作声。你必须作出决策，你是领导人。是的，但是我会感到孤独，我是一个人，责任在我。如果决策失败了，我是唯一受到指责的人，在这个时候，我就必须面对孤独，因为我必须全权负责。

巴基斯坦是一个农业国家，纺织业是他的传统支柱产业。但近年来，该国能源和电信部门迅速发展。在穆沙拉夫执政中期，巴基斯坦国内生产总值年均增长7%，2005年巴基斯坦的经济增长速度，位居亚洲第三位，仅仅位于中国和新加坡之后。

主：之前你说过，虽然你不是经济方面的专家，但在你担任总统时，巴基斯坦的经济始终保持健康发展。一生戎马的你是如何在经济领域有这么大成就的？

嘉：那时我意识到，经济学家常常用一些复杂的术语来迷惑大家。起初我对经济一窍不通的，我也没有专门去学习，后来我认识到一个国家的经济问题就是支出和收入的问题。就是这两件事情。

主：就这么简单吗？

嘉：你只要确保收入和支出的差距不大，不需要完全一致，因为通过借贷，可以谋求更快发展。如果两者持平了，赚多少花多少，那么经济发展速度就会放缓。因此我们要借贷，支出当然也就比收入略高一些，这不会有问题，这种做法是惯例。当然贷款不能超过国内生产总值的60%，这是常识。如果你有110元在口袋却欠了110元债务，这是不行的。但是如果你有100元，债务为20元30元40元50元，这是可以的。其实就是一个支出和收入的问题，体现在本国货币与外汇两个方面。现在我在详细讲一些在本国货币上，收入就是财政收入。你要如何消费呢？首先是政府开支，这是财政支出最大的一部分，其次是用于国防建设，再次是补贴那些由政府运作的亏损机构，所以我努力控制支出增加收入。六年内，财政收入增加了300%，财政支出也下降了，这是我们值得高兴的地方。正式因为这样的改变，我们投入社会发展的费用比以前多出六倍。在外汇方面，钱都花在哪里了呢？哪里我们还需要投入？首先在税收服务上，我们国内的税很高。其次是进口，进口不可避免，因为国内生产需要进口原料来生产，这是我们外汇支出的两个主要方面。那么外汇收入从哪里来呢？这主要靠出口和投资，扩大投资，增加出口。所以，这现年来，我们的产量增加了五倍多，同时控制开支

偿还高额利率的债务，要求巴黎俱乐部减少我们的债务，所以我们在外汇上收支相抵了。我们最初有50亿美元债务到2004年20亿美元盈余，这是一个很长的回答，但是我想说的是我告诉经济学家，是你们让事情难懂。用普通人的话来说就是支出和收入两方面，控制好他们就掌握了整个宏观经济。

主：这就穆沙拉夫将军简单的经济哲学？

嘉：是的。

南亚区域合作联盟是一个促进区域经济政治合作机构，由八个南亚成员国组成。南盟在采取积极姿态融入全球经济，但区域内贸易由于印巴冲突不断，连年走低。

主：有人说南亚的自由贸易，如果没有巴基斯坦和印度的有效参与就没有什么意义，你认同吗？

嘉：是的，我认同。因为南亚区域合作联盟是南亚一个区域性政府间组织，起初这一组织很大原因上是为调停印巴冲突设立的，因为两国都是南亚的大国。正所谓，两象相争牧草遭殃，这确实是个问题。除非两国消除争端不然发展地区经济很难实现。

主：你刚也提到提高人民生活水平是南亚地区面临的一大挑战。如果巴基斯坦更加积极地参与地区自由贸易对巴基斯坦有何益处？

嘉：当然，巴基斯坦可以从中获利的。巴国一些经济领域，比如说工业，一些工业非常脆弱，他们在过去七八年里才刚刚发展起来，我们鼓励当地的工业发展。我们要首先保证自身利益不受损失。从这一角度来讲我们并不希望看到参与自由贸易的同时让本国经济受损。我敢说没有哪个国家会允许这样的事情发生。

主：国内脆弱的工业是你最关心的问题吗？

嘉：是的，这一直是我们关心的问题。我们不甘心只当一个农业国，所有国家都会为了提高人民生活水平而大力发展工业，这就需要提供工作机会。工作从哪里来呢？由工业产业提供，他们提供职位、雇佣工人。如果不发展工业我们将深受其害，我们会倒退。没有工业，只能进口产品以及依赖仅有的农产品。这不是一个明智的做法，所以我们不是不加思考地加入任何条款，当然我们支持自由贸易也会积极参与。但是首先我们要确保自己的利益得到保障，印度也是这么做的，他们给我们最惠国待遇，但对我们的纺织品征收高额关税。为什么？印度要保护本国纺织业，大家都是这么做的。

中巴两国始终保持长期全面的合作关系。1950年，巴基斯坦是首个承认中国的穆斯林国家。一年后，中巴两国正式建交。上世纪60年代，两国达成首个贸易协定。1971年，一架从伊斯兰堡起飞的巴基斯坦客机搭载着时任美国国家安全事务助理亨利.基辛格开始他历史性秘密访华。

中国国家主席胡锦涛称巴基斯坦是一个好邻居、好朋友、好兄弟，巴基斯坦总统扎尔达里回应说巴中人民友情比喜马拉雅山还高。

主：你对中巴关系的未来发展有什么看法？

嘉：我对中巴关系的发展始终是非常乐观的。

主：我们是好邻居？

嘉：是的，我们是近邻。而且我一直认为两国的关系应该更加紧密。我经常说起我们两国由公路连接，喀喇昆仑公路，这条公路被人们称为世界第八奇迹。我跟胡锦涛主席提过，我们应该创造世界第九第十大奇迹. 让我们建造贯通中巴两国的铁路，建造电缆，建造天然气以及石油管道，从我们的港口通往中国，这样两国的关系会更加的紧密。

主：你谈到了一些中巴未来的合作项目，就目前来看 你觉得哪些切实可行？

嘉：他们都是切实可行的。有人说无法在海拔高的地方修建铁路，但是中国却在西藏修建了铁路。我读过相关报道，铁路穿过冻土区，有超过一半的冻土区。所以我认为修建中巴铁路是可行的。至于石油天然气管道，我和一些专家讨论。他们说可以。在巴国内沿地势往上修建到了中国境内，地势往下，这是建石油天然气管道的优势。

主：在你想到了这么多好项目。如果让你选择你觉得那个项目是你最为看中的？是铁路还是天然气管线？

嘉：我觉得是铁路。因为铁路可以连通整个地区。如果有一条铁路从巴基斯坦北上中国、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦都可以连成一线、他们都是内陆国家，他们在寻找入海口。从中国方面看，看看进出海湾的陆路绕过印度，然后到达马六甲海峡再抵达东海岸，想想铁路修建后的距离。我没有计算过，但距离肯定会大大减少。巴基斯坦瓜多尔港口，这是我们公建的一个港口，要充分认识到这个港口在区域内的潜力以及整个区域连成一体。对每个国家而言都是双赢的局面。当我访问中亚时，跟中亚各国总统谈及此事，他们都显得非常的兴奋并表示支持。我觉得中国是实现这个壮举的中坚力量，我一直坚信，这是值得的。

主：最后一个问题，你说过你在做国家领导人时，有时倍感孤独。那现在的生活怎么样？

嘉：现在轻松多了。我也有了许多属于我自己的时间。之前我出访中国的时间不会超过三四天。因为是工作必须立刻赶回去。这次我可以在中国呆11天，我会到处看看，乘坐磁悬浮。所以我很放松。

主：你现在快乐吗？

嘉：是的，非常快乐。

——专访巴基斯坦前总统穆沙拉夫

近些年来，南亚恐怖主义不管是在其势力还是活动范围上都呈上升趋势。恐怖主义逐渐由西向东蔓延，在亚洲所发生的恐怖主义事件占到了全球总和的70%之多，其中以南亚居多。越来越多的人认为南亚地成为恐怖主义滋生的温床。

.恐怖主义在南亚呈泛滥之势，08年孟买恐怖袭击案更是反映了恐怖主义活动的猖獗。广泛分布的恐怖组织在一些国家发展壮大。他们以疯狂的激进行动对世界施加着自己的影响，可以看出，恐怖势力在南亚已经成为一个大的安全隐患。

南亚的安全与稳定直接影响着全亚洲的安全与稳定,甚至影响到全球的安全与稳定。

美国对阿战争已经持续了7、8年了，但是专家认为美国在阿境内从事的活动更多，情况就会愈加糟糕。

南亚正在面临怎样的安全挑战呢?作为南亚大国以及打击恐怖主义的重要力量,巴基斯坦在消除地区暴力方面发挥着怎样的作用呢?

大家好,欢迎收看《惊言堂》我是主持人秦忆.这个星期.我们很荣幸邀请到巴基斯坦前总统佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫将军,欢迎坐客《惊言堂》,谢谢.

嘉宾介绍

巴基斯坦前总统佩尔韦兹·穆沙拉夫1943年出生在印度，幼年时随家人迁居到巴基斯坦。1961年进入巴基斯坦军事学院学习，1999年10解散国家和省议会，同时接管国家最高政权。

2001年6月穆沙拉夫宣誓就任总统，并于2007年成功连任，一年后的2008年穆沙拉夫宣布辞职。

恐怖主义是南亚地区首要问题

主：我们先来谈谈整个南亚的局势，我们知道，欧盟与美国认为南亚麻烦不断，各种利益集团纷争不止，因此需要一整套环环相扣的综合性战略来处理该地区事务，你对这个地区的形势作何评价？

嘉：你说得对，我认为从多方面看南亚地区形势相当严峻。首先是印巴两个核武国家的纷争一触即发，其次最近该地区恐怖主义极端主义势力日渐抬头。再次，如果一国经济发展停滞会影响到该国人民的生活水平。贫困，失业等问题便纷至沓来，这就是该地区正面临的三大难题。

主：上述三大难题中你认为哪个问题最难解决？

嘉：我认为就目前来看恐怖主义和极端主义是个难点。

主：你觉得目前在南亚地区恐怖主义呈现出怎样的发展态势？

嘉：相当严重，这个问题涉及以下几个层面。这里有应被消灭的基地组织，也有阿富汗塔利班军事组织，他们获得部分巴基斯坦联邦直辖部落地区的支持，甚至巴基斯坦部分地区存在塔利班化的现象，极端主义活动不断。

塔利班一词来源于普什图语是“学生”的意思，塔利班则是“学生们”的意思。2001年塔利班政权被摧毁之后，其残余势力逃往巴基斯坦西北边境省以及其他阿巴边境地区。近些年来塔利班大有死灰复燃之势。

主：刚才你提到巴基斯坦国内有些直辖部落支持塔利班，美国曾谴责巴政府支持塔斯利班并长期向其提供官方援助，这是事实吗？

嘉：这是毫无根据的。塔利班给巴基斯坦制造许多麻烦，对我们来说是十分危险的。对于这个问题，我们站在巴国人民的立场上，并非为了美国或别国来处理问题。我国政府为何要支持他们呢？这种言论源于上世纪90年代1989年苏联解体冷战结束后，许多人离开这个地区。自1989年至2001年阿富汗并没有大规模的恐怖活动，随后基地组织出现了基地组织成员与圣战者同源，然后塔利班出现了。现在有两方交火不断塔利班和北方联盟塔利班多是普什图人，北方联盟主要由塔吉克人 、乌兹别克人和哈萨拉人组成。他们得到印度和俄罗斯的支持，有普什图背景的塔利班成员与巴西北部法塔地区颇有渊源，他们同属一个民族，和我们的普什图同根同源。我们曾承认塔利班政权，我们也是唯一在喀布尔派驻特使的国家。正是从那时起人们觉得我们支持塔利班，但我们完全不赞同塔利班的宗教主张，如果两国建立外交关系。处理双方事务，并不意味着支持对方的所有行动。所以就现在而言任何人说巴国政府、军队或者军情局支持塔利班军事行动，这完全是胡说。

主：你说恐怖活动是南亚地区的头等大事，但反恐战争由来已久，我们是否已经取得了一些进展？

嘉：是的，在很多方面我们已取得进展，反恐始于9.11恐怖袭击事件之后，就是对美国世贸大厦的袭击。在那之后发生了什么呢？美国进攻了阿富汗。原驻扎阿富汗的基地组织成员和圣战者向巴基斯坦各大城市及山区逃窜，我们搜索了国内每座城市逮捕了几百名藏身城市的基地分子。目前在各城市看不到他们的踪影，这是我们的成就。基地分子不得不躲入山区，我们继续追剿他们。还有，我们有效控制了巴方普什图族人穿越阿巴边境以防他们与塔利班并肩作战，这就是我们取得的一些成就。

主：那还有哪些问题尚待解决？

嘉：亟待解决的首先是阿富汗问题，塔利班控制了阿富汗农村地区。有人认为阿富汗的农村地区占国土面积的50-60%，处于塔利班控制之下。人们错误地认为巴基斯坦是塔利班的基地，巴基斯坦支持塔利班，巴基斯坦是塔利班的源头，因为普什图族人对塔利班怀有同情，但是塔利班主要驻扎在哪里。在阿富汗，所以关于巴是塔利班基地的错误言论是一些人捏造出来的，给巴基斯坦抹黑。首先我们在阿富汗境内取得胜利，其次我们必须控制巴山区的

塔利班武装和基地组织。

奥巴马执政以来，美国政府一直在调整其南亚战略。美国计划为巴基斯坦提供大规模援助

包括连续5年每年15亿美元的资金援助帮助巴基斯坦的社会发展。同时，美向巴施压

要求巴方加大对阿巴边境塔利班的打击力度。

主：巴基斯坦是否采取更大的力度打击恐怖分子呢？特别是在美国的压力下。

嘉：这不是我们想不想的问题，而是我们受某些条件制约。我们需要各方全力支持。但现人们指责巴基斯坦，这与现实背道而驰，谴责巴方，谴责巴方军队，谴责巴基斯坦军事情报机构，那么谁又来扛起反恐大旗？他们在和恐怖分子作战，他们歼灭了敌人，自身也遭受了重大人员伤亡。有1500名巴方军人死亡，不知人们如何看待这个问题。如果有人杀害我的1500名士兵，我会支持他们吗？这是什么逻辑？我完全不懂这种逻辑。当然我们打击恐怖分子也受到制约，首先是军事力量不足，我们在东部边境部署了军队，我们不可能撤走东部的全部兵力，去支援西北边境的战事。其次是军事装备短缺，比如枪械，直升机，战机，军火装备等，这需要很大一笔钱，因此美方应该增强巴方军力和军事情报局的力量以对抗巴境内的塔利班和基地武装分子，而美军应该在阿富汗有所作为，所有被抓获的塔利班领导人中一共五六十人，他们所有人，我强调一下，当中没有一个人是由驻阿联军剿获的，是巴方抓获了他们，是巴方军情机构和部队剿获了他们，所以对巴基斯坦的谴责是怎么来的？这让巴基斯坦人民很失望，首先我们遇到难题，其次我们受到指责，没有因此受到鼓舞，令人士气消沉

这完全是适得其反的。

主：你一直说阿富汗是反恐热点区域，但在奥巴马政府看来，巴基斯坦对美国的威胁更大。这里的威胁指的是什么？威胁来自哪里？

嘉：就塔利班和基地组织而言塔利班势力主要在阿富汗境内并得到巴基斯坦联邦直辖部落的支持。联邦直辖部落由7个部落组成，这7个部落占巴总人口的3%较密集的定居在巴境内

南瓦齐里斯坦和北瓦齐里斯坦，仅占巴人口的0.2%。所以，我们又能说什么呢？那代表巴基斯坦吗？不是，现在在这个地区出现了极端主义是我们必须遏制的，这是巴基斯坦的特殊性，巴基斯坦的人民由于过去20年间的历史纷争，巴基斯坦人不喜欢美国人。所以美国人在巴基斯坦实施反恐行动时，巴国人民会举行大规模示威游行，打出极端反美的条幅，这在巴基斯坦造成分歧。政府和美联军携手打击恐怖主义和极端势力，但巴基斯坦的人民不喜欢美国人，这需要斡旋调解，我认为最好的办法就是增强巴基斯坦自身实力应对国内极端主义势力的挑战，和塔利班武装分子的肆虐，美国人所指的第二个威胁是指一些地区的塔利班化

塔利班势力从一些部落地区已经渗透到斯瓦特地区，这是非常糟糕的事情。

在美国的重压之下，巴基斯坦在四月末采取了西北边境省打击塔利班的一系列军事行动。截止五月底，巴方已经控制被塔利班占领的明格拉市，这是塔利班在斯瓦特山谷重镇之一。多达1200名的塔利班成员在行动中被击毙，也造成了约300万贫民流离失所。

主：你对奥巴马的南亚新战略怎么看？他从伊拉克撤军并增兵阿富汗。

嘉：我赞成奥巴马的新战略，我们需要在阿富汗增强军事实力。我一直坚持三重战略，军事，政治和社会经济发展，但是政治和社会经济发展战略，必须在军事战略取得胜利之后才能施行，因此军事战略至关重要。因此有必要在阿富汗部署兵力需要部署重兵。从这个角度来说，

我赞同奥巴马向阿富汗增兵。但我想说，目前这些部队远远不够，七八千，甚至一万人的军队是不够的，阿富汗地处山区 容易稀释兵力，所以需要增派更多的军队。现在美国派遣本国的军队，有欧盟和其他国家的军队，还有阿富汗军队，但他们还需要部署更多兵力。

印度和巴基斯坦是南亚地区两个超级大国，然而在过去的50年间，由克什米尔领土争端所引发的冲突一直主导着印巴之间的关系。双方剑拔弩张的紧张关系在2000曾一度缓和，但2008年的孟买恐怖主义袭击事件再一次将双方的关系拖入谷底，两国关系再遇信任危机。

嘉：当我们谈到恐怖主义和极端势力时遗漏了一个问题，那就是印度。在印度，由于对少数穆斯林的排斥导致了一些极端主义的诞生，一些穆斯林长期被排斥，被逼到极端主义的阵营。这个问题必须解决。克什米尔争端促成了巴国内的独立圣战组织和独立穆斯林组织，他们试图介入并挑起纷争，因此忽略印度的问题，一味指责巴基斯坦和阿富汗，是不现实的。巴基斯坦和阿富汗只是问题的一部分，并非解决之道，印度必须加入到反恐的阵营中来，从根源上消除恐怖主义。恐怖主义的根源在于穆斯林遭排斥，我们必须找到恐怖主义的根子，如果是克什米尔争端导致了巴境内的恐怖主义和极端主义，那么就解决克什米尔争端。因此对于美国驻巴特别代表霍尔布鲁克只在巴基斯坦和阿富汗境内打击恐怖主义的观点，我不敢苟同的，这并不能从全局上打击恐怖主义和极端主义。霍尔布鲁克最近关于放任克什米尔争端发展的言论，显然大错特错了。他没有指出问题的根源所在，而只是在一些无关紧要的问题上做文章。我一直强调，恐怖主义和极端主义就像是一棵大树，那些恐怖分子就像是树叶，你可以消灭他们，你确实消灭了一些恐怖分子，但他们会像叶子一样再长出来的。我们应该善于发现问题的本质，而问题的本质就是克什米尔争端以及穆斯林被排斥。实际上还有一些问题等待发现，比如巴境内恐怖组织的根源是什么？所以我不敢说巴基斯坦在恐怖主义问题上没有责任，而责任都在其他国家。恐怖主义关系全局，我们应该从全局出发，妥善解决问题。

主：作为核武国家， 印巴的紧张局势加深了南亚的不稳定因素，很多人对此深表担忧。

嘉：过去两国之间曾经爆发三次战争以及零星的武装冲突，大多数战役和冲突我都参加了。现在我敢肯定的是双方的决策层都保持着足够的理智以避免冲突和战争，因为现在的武器

打击范围和精度都有所提高，一旦出现战争 双方都将损失惨重。现在情况出现在印度而不是巴基斯坦。印度议会大厦遭到袭击，印方指责这起事件是巴政府所为。你想想我们有什么必要恐怖袭击印度议会大厦？孟买恐怖袭击发生以后，印度甚至发表不负责任的言论要攻击巴基斯坦。难道巴基斯坦就不会反击么？你要敢攻击巴基斯坦，我们当然就要反击。不要把巴基斯坦同没有武装力量的小国相比，如果印度攻击巴基斯坦，巴基斯坦就会强力回应。事实上，这种以牙还牙的想法非常危险。

主：你觉得今后印巴双边关系会有怎样的发展走势？

嘉：印巴关系正向好的方向发展，截止2007年在我执政期间，印巴的关系空前良好。巴方曾与印前总理瓦杰帕伊及现任总理辛格几乎就要签订协议解决争端，我们几乎在克什米尔问题上将要达成一致。我们曾一度打算签定和平协议，但最终都功亏一篑。所以我觉得在解决克什米尔问题上，我们不仅需要智慧，灵活，宽容，理解，更重要的是要有足够的勇气。没有足够的勇气，那么一切都是徒劳。因为最终需要勇气来签定这个协议。因为本国民众或部分民众可能并不认同协议上的部分内容，但是既然达成了协议，印巴两国就要遵守。双方都会有得有失的，不可能只有得，没有失。所以失去的那部分是最艰难的部分。你必须向民众作出合理的解释。但不管怎样最后总会有一些人不满意，他们会出来抗议叫嚣，这需要勇气只要是对两国都有利，这些反对的声音都无所谓。

主：未来你觉得双方会达成这样的协议吗？

嘉：双方的决策层都很理性明智，他们会同意的。

——General Musharraf, former President of Pakistan

Terrorism is a top issue in South Asia. [M: Terrorism and extremism is like a tree. There are leaves. These terrorists, you eliminated them of them, they will grow again.] Why does the violence continue to escalate? [M: The root is the alienation of the Muslim community.] And US criticism of Pakistani intelligence for secretly supporting the Taliban isn’t improving relations. [M: If somebody has killed my soldiers, around 1,500 of them, I will be supporting them? What kind of logic is this?]

South Asia has seen an escalating pace and scale in terrorism over the past few years. With terrorism transferring from West to East, nearly 70% of terrorist attacks took place in Asia, mostly in South Asia. There is growing realization that South Asia has become the crucible of terrorism. The security and stability of South Asia affects the continent as a whole, and even the rest of the world. So what are the challenges facing South Asia? As a major country in South Asia and a centrifuge for terrorism, what is Pakistan’s role in stopping violence in the region?

Guest profile

Pervez Musharraf is the former president of Pakistan. He was born in India in 1943, and moved to Pakistan in his childhood with his family. In 1961 he entered the Pakistan Military Academy. Musharraf took power in October 1999 when he dismissed the national and provincial legislative assemblies. In June 2001, he took the position of President, and was successfully re-elected in 2007. One year later Musharraf resigned from the post.

PART I Security in South Asia

Q: Hello and welcome to the Main Talk, I’m your host Qin Yi. This week we are very honored to be joined by General Musharraf, former President of Pakistan. General Musharraf, welcome to the Main Talk.

M: Thank you very much.

Q: First about the South Asian region as a whole, we understand the EU and US view as a troubled region with competing powers that demands a comprehensive and interlocked strategy. How do you comment on the overall situation in this region?

M: Yes. I think that the situation is quite serious from many points of view. One is that it is considered nuclear flashpoint in India-Pakistan relations. The other is the latest development of the terrorism and extremism in the region. And the third of course, if your economy is not performing, another challenge is the well-being of the people, unemployment and poverty, etc. Those are three areas of challenges in the region.

Q: What is the most serious problem, you mentioned three of them?

M: At the moment, I think terrorism and extremism is the most serious problem.

Q: How will you describe the landscape of terrorism in South Asia?

M: Well, it is a serious issue. It has multi-dimensional aspects. There is Al Qaida to be eliminated from the region; there is militant Taliban in Afghanistan and they have supporters in Pakistan, especially our travel agencies; then there is “talibanization” in a certain district of Pakistan; and then there is extremism in the society.

The word Taliban is from the Pashto language meaning “students”, the plural of Taliban. After the Taliban regime collapsed in 2001, its remnants evacuated into Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province and other areas along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Recent years have seen the re-emergence of the Taliban’s movements.

Q: You mentioned that there is support from travel agency within Pakistan. The US have actually criticized that the Pakistani Government has been supporting and providing official assistance to the Taliban for a long time, how true is that?

M: It is absolute nonsense. They are creating all the problems in Pakistan. It is a danger for Pakistan. We are not dealing with them for the United States or for anyone else. We are doing that for ourselves. So why the government support them? Actually, this talk goes on because we have seen in the decade of the 1990s when everyone, after the Soviet Defeat in 1989 and the end of the Cold War, left this region. And then, the Al Qaida came up. Al Qaida is composed of the same “Mujahidin” who were brought here. And then Taliban came in. Now when Taliban came in, there were two parties warring against each other: Taliban versus “Northern Alliance”. The Taliban were all Pashtos, the Northern Alliance was Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Hazaras, and they were being supported by India and Russia. The Taliban with the Pushto background had linkages with Pakistan in FATA because it is the same ethnic group. So obviously, we had recognized the Taliban Government, we were the only country which recognized that they had a mission in Kabul. From that time onwards, people think that we support Taliban, but we certainly did not agree with their lines of thinking on religion. I mean, if you are in diplomatic relations and you are dealing with somebody, that doesn’t mean that you support them in every aspects of their activities. So now, coming to the present times, what anyone says that the Government or the Army or ISI is supporting the Taliban is absolute nonsense.

Q: You said terrorism is still the top issue in South Asia but we have been talking about this entire terrorism war for many years. Have you made any achievements so far, in your opinion?

M: Well, we have. Certainly we have been reasonably successful in many ways. When did it start? Let’s think of that, it started with the 911 bomb blast, the attack on the World Trade Center. What happened after that? After that the United States attacked Afghanistan and all the Al Qaida and his Mujahedeens who already hold up in Afghanistan, they ran into Pakistan, in cities and the mountains. We have eliminated all of them from the cities; we have caught hundreds of them from the cities, from every city of Pakistan. We don’t see any Al Qaida now in the cities of Pakistan. That’s a great success. And then we pushed them into the mountains and we attacked them in the mountains with our army. Then, the other success is to control the borders that our population, the Pathans population on our side, doesn’t go across in Afghanistan to fight with the Taliban. So these are all successes.

Q: What are the challenges remaining ahead?

M: The challenges remaining ahead is, first of all, Afghanistan, Taliban are ruling the rural area of Afghanistan. Some people say about 50-60% of rural area in Afghanistan is under control of Taliban. That is the first challenge. So you said, unfortunately people keep thinking that Pakistan is the place. Pakistan keeps supporting this. Pakistan is the place where they come and they have same beliefs because people have sympathy on them. But where are they mainly from? They are Afghanistan. This is a misperception created by some people, designing to my Pakistan. So first we have to win in Afghanistan and secondly, we also have to control these elements of militant Taliban and Al Qaida in Pakistan in mountains.

PART II Pakistan, Afghanistan and US relations

Under the Obama administration, the US has recently rethought its strategy in South Asia. The US planned to provide Pakistan massive aid, 1.5 billion US dollars a year for five years for its social development. In return, the US put more pressure on the Pakistan to attack the Taliban on its border with Afghanistan.

Q: Is Pakistan, as a country, more likely to be aggressive in seeking those terrorists, especially given the pressure of the United States?

M: No. You see, why would we not want to be more aggressive? There are certain limitations. We have to be supported fully. But at the moment I want to say, people blame Pakistan which is the absolute contrary to the reality. You start blaming Pakistan, and the Pakistan army, and ISI, which is the main instrument of fighting against them. They are fighting them, they have killed hundreds of them and they have suffered casualties. Our forces have suffered about 1,500 deaths, so what kind of thinking is this? If somebody has killed my soldiers, around 1,500 of them, I will be supporting them? What kind of logic is this? There are certain limitations of course. First, the limitation of force, we have responsibilities on the Eastern borders, and we can not remove the whole army and bring them here. Secondly, the equipment, the gunshots, the helicopters and the fighter aircraft, the supply in munitions take a lot of money! So, we need to be supported, I mean, to be supported fully and reinforced. The Taliban leaders who have been caught, a lot of them have been caught, 50 to 60 of them, not one, I repeat not one, has been caught by the coalition forces in Afghanistan. We have done that, ISI has caught them, ISI has eliminated them. What kind of accusations are these? It disappoints the people of Pakistan. First, we are facing a problem, and secondly we are being blamed, and no encouragement. It’s demoralization. This is very counterproductive activity.

Q: You keep mentioning that Afghanistan, you said, that’s a hot spot in the region in the terms of anti-terrorism, but under the Obama’s administration, Pakistan is actually predicted as a bigger threat to the US than Afghanistan. What does that threat refer to? Where does it come from?

M: As far as Taliban and Al Qaida are concerned, the Taliban are mainly in Afghanistan, entirely in Afghanistan, and supported by Pakistan in FATA. FATA are seven travel agencies. The population of the travel agencies is 3% of Pakistan, and the main concentration is in South and North Waziristan, population 0.2% of Pakistan. Is this Pakistan? No. It is not Pakistan. There is extremism in the society, which we have to control. That is Pakistan’s specificity and the people of Pakistan. For some reasons, because of their historical experiences in the past two decades, Pakistan does not like Americans. So when they carried out attacks in Pakistan, there were demonstrations and there were terrible slogans against the United States. There is a dichotomy, why we are together with the coalition to fight terrorism and extremism. But the people are not with them, they don’t like them. This balancing has to be done and I would say the best balancing to be done is to reinforce Pakistan itself to meet this challenge of extremism in the society and the spread of Taliban. The second is the spread of Talibanization into certain districts. Now from the travel agencies, they are spreading to one of our settle districts Swat. It is called Swat. They have spread there. Well, that is negative.

Under pressure by the United States, Pakistan announced the operation in the North West Frontier Province in late April. Taliban rebels were driven out of Mingora, a major Taliban base in the Swat Valley, by Pakistan government troops at the end of May. So far over 12 hundred Taliban rebels were killed and three million civilians left homeless.

Q: What should you take on Obama’s new strategy in South Asia? I mean he is talking about withdrawing troops from Iraq and put more troops into Afghanistan.

M: I think I would agree with that because I think they need to have more forces there. I keep saying that there has to be a three-round strategy: military, political and social economic; but the political and social economic must not be done or must only be done from a position of strength. So the military aspect is very important. They need forces there. They certainly did need more forces there. So to that extent, I agree with President Obama to send more troops there. But let me say that those troops are insufficient, I mean 7,000 or 8,000 or 10,000 troops are insufficient. In that area there are mountains. It’s sucking troops. Therefore, it means much more than that. Nowadays, they bring forces themselves, or European Union or anybody else, or our national army; they need more forces.

PART III

India and Pakistan are the two largest countries in South Asia. However, conflicts in the Kashmir region dominated India-Pakistan relations over the past 50 years. In the mid-2000 there was an improvement in relations but they soured again after the 2008 Mumbai Terrorist Attacks, as mutual suspicion emerged between the two countries.

M: I would like to say one area we are working is missing, and when you are talking on terrorism and extremism and its holistic view. India, there is the problem in India. There is extremism in India because of the alienation of the Muslim minority. Those Muslims are used to be alienated and are being pushed into extremism that needs to be resolved. Kashmir dispute which is the cause of many independent “Mujahedeen” groups in Pakistan. Independent Muslim groups are ready to go in and they have been going on to fight. So, any sidelining or ignoring the realities of India and dealing only with Pakistan, Afghanistan, is not realistic. You are dealing with half of the problem, and you will not succeed. India has to be included in the package of fighting terrorism and extremism and getting to the root causes. The root cause is the alienation of the Muslim community, why? Fight on the root cause. If this Kashmir dispute is leading to terrorism and extremism in Pakistan, we need to resolve the Kashmir issue. So I don’t agree with him on the special representative Michel “Holbrook”, only to deal with Pakistan, Afghanistan. I don’t think they got the hard tools really fighting terrorism and extremism in a holistic manner. And his latest view that Kashmir, they are not going to deal with Kashmir is absolutely wrong, you are not then addressing the root causes, you are just addressing the peripheral. I keep saying that terrorism and extremism is like a tree, there are leaves, these terrorists, you are eliminating ten of them, you have done something, OK, fine. They are leaves, and they will grow again. You have to address the root, and the root is Kashmir dispute in this region and the root is the alienation of the Muslim community. The root is also to find out, what is the root of extremism in Pakistan? So I am not saying that Pakistan is all clean. The problem is the whole. We have to take a holistic approach and solve the problem.

Q: There is a worry that the nuclear powers of these two countries and tensions between the two countries contribute to the instability of the region?

M: In the past, before three wars, and a number of mini wars. I have been part of many of them. But then, other than that, what is dangerous is now, I am very sure that the leaderships on both sides are sensible enough not to get to war because the weapons of destruction, even at the national level, the accuracy have increased so much that both of us will suffer a lot. But so in this case, what is happening now is that in India especially not in Pakistan, there is an attack on the Parliament, they rip out its studio in their public and convene the Pakistan Government. Now why should the Pakistan Government attack your Parliament with terrorists? Mumbai again, they start saying irresponsible statements, as we will attack Pakistan, we will go for strike, and you think that Pakistan is not going to strike back? We are going to strike back. You attack Pakistan, we will attack you. You shouldn’t compare Pakistan with any small country, which doesn’t have force. So if you go for strikes in Pakistan, we will do so in India, so this kind of rhetoric is very dangerous.

Q: Where do you see this bilateral relations going?

M: Bilateral relations are going very well. In my time they were going very well. We never have India-Pakistan relations being so good till 2007 never. We got very close to signing, resolving our dispute. We were very close, even the Kashmir dispute, we were close to getting an agreement. I think it needs courage more than intelligence, more than flexibility, more than accommodation and more than understanding. If you don’t have courage, everything is useless because ultimately it is your courage to sign an agreement because in many aspects in that agreement, which your public will not like, or part of the public not the entire public, part of the public will not like. But that applies to Pakistan and India, because when you reach a deal, this is give-and-take. It cannot be a give, you can’t take, and you will never treat a deal like that give-and-take. This is the easy part and the difficult part is you have to justify to your population, so in your population there will be always some people who will strike and go out and shout around. But it doesn’t matter if it is for the good of the two countries.

Q: Do you think that this agreement will be signed or reached in the future there?

M: Well, the leaders are sensible enough, they must agree.

--- Teddy Zhang, President and CEO of HUBS1

The Shanghai World Expo 2010 will be one for the history books, the first ever held in a developing country. It is expected to be the largest and most highly attended Expo in the 156-year history of the World Expo. To date, 237 participants are confirmed, including 189 countries and 48 international organizations. However, statistics show, among the 70 million anticipated visitors, only 5% will be foreigners; the remaining 95% are expected to be domestic visitors. The hotel industry is preparing for a major boom in business for the event and years following. Will there be enough beds to go around? And what long term plans are being made for the hospitality industry after the event wraps up in Shanghai?

Guest profile

Zhang graduated from the School of Hotel Administration, Cornell University and holds an MBA from the Wharton School. Prior to founding HUBS1 in 2005, Teddy was Director and Managing Director for the Thayer Group, one of the largest private equity firms in the US.

Q: Hello and welcome to the Maintalk, I’m your host Amy Rutledge. Join me on this edition is Teddy Zhang, President and CEO of HUBS1, the official hotel reservation service provider for 2010 Expo Shanghai. So estimated right now there are supposed to be 70million visitors for the Expo, does it seem like a realistic figure to you?

R: Actually we are very confident about the number from several aspects. If you look at how realistic this number is going to be. First if you look at historical world Expo visitor numbers back in 1970s, Osaka Japan had 64 million visitors and then if you look at shanghai on an annually regular basis, there are hundreds of millions visitors coming to shanghai alone and five million visitors from overseas. So from those aspects, I think it is not a stretch by any means, which 70 million visitors are going to happen. And this is part of government’s initiative to ensure the successful splendid, memorable Expo.

Q: At this pint, there are 325 star-rated hotels in shanghai, plans to build another 175 by the start of the Expo. Is this something that you see as a smart move, this number of star-rated hotels?

R: For hotel industry, if you build a hotel purely for one occasion, the event like the Expo or even like the Olympics, I think that’s not a wise decision. I don’t think any hotel industry would do that. But if you look at it in the long run, the business environment in Shanghai, and particularly Shanghai is going to be a financial center and logistic center not only in China but hopefully in Asia, that’s the central government’s initiative, they just proposed those two centers in China. So business travel, leisure travel, they all grow very fast if you look at the past five to ten years. From that regard, hotels still have a lot of room, potentials to grow. Given the 70 million visitors we just mentioned, among them probably 40-50 million visitors need hotel accommodation. So, the six-month event is also helpful for hotel getting brand awareness. It may not be if you build a hotel just for the Expo, but that’s the exposure you will like to have. All the hotel companies take that as a good start.

Q: Once all the new construction is done for the Expo, we are supposed to have something along 500,000 beds in Shanghai area available for visitors for the Expo, but they are predicting on peak time, we are going to get about 800,000, where are those 300,000 extra people going to stay?

R: The organizing committee project on this regular daily basis, it’s about 400,000 visitors, and peak time is as you mentioned 800,000. So 500,000 beds are within Shanghai area, but that not really includes the service apartment, and the committee may also utilize college dorm as a temporary solution, and we even mentioned about cruise line, they can dock along the Huangpu River, which can provide thousands beds as well. The other is if you look at the surrounding area, one hour to two hours ride away, if you include one or two hour ride places like Suzhou, the north of Shanghai and Hangzhou, the south, that should be pretty sufficient. I think that adds to about 800,000 beds. But if you really look at the peak time, 800,000 visitors per day, among them, 600,000 will need accommodation. Because other visitors are domestic, and they live just one or two hours ride from Shanghai. They don’t need hotel accommodation to stay overnight.

Q: In terms of the hotels that are being built, do you think it’s a good idea because there is the potential that once the Expo is over; there is a lot of hotel rooms that could sit empty in Shanghai?

R: Yes. I think in the long run, the industry development standpoint there is still an opportunity and there is a potential growth for the travel industry, needs a lot of hotel rooms. But no investor will build hotels just for this one special occasion, so if you look at the long run, and look at the cities like Manhattan, San Francisco, Chicago, Shanghai supply is still under par compared to those cities. And given the economic growth and given the domestic emerging middle class, family travel, I still think building hotels right now is fairly reasonable investment decision. It’s also a good opportunity before the Expo that exposes your brand worldwide and nationwide through different channels.

Q: Let us talk a little bit of how many reservations for the Expo we got, it is promising already or is still early but I am sure people looking ahead.

R: Yes, you are right. Too early but we are ready to get almost like nearly 50,000 confirmed and paid deposit. There is hundreds of thousands of reservations in the pipeline. We got a lot of increase particularly from inbound and from a lot of countries. Because a lot of countries plan to build pavilion here, those bookings are already coming and domestic wise. As you know Chinese travelers pattern their lee-time in the industry, the word lee-time is pretty short. So we are looking at the end of the year or early next year for the domestic travelers starting to book but for the international we are looking at the second half of this year the bookings will pick up pretty soon.

We are talking with HUBS1CEO and President Teddy Zhang. During the Olympics, problems with high prices and transparency cause some anger among hotel visitors, what’s being done to change it for the expo 2010? The answer coming up next…

During the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the organizing committee signed contracts with 120 star-rated hotels and labeled them as official Olympic hotels at the end of 2007. This included 38 five star hotels, 45 four star ones and 22 three star and below. After that, the standard room price at an Olympic hotel skyrocketed almost four to five times its normal price. Although most of the five star Olympic hotels had high occupancy rates, the majority of the 3 and 4 star hotels were less than 50% full.

Q: During the Beijing Olympics, it’s obviously a much shorter event. But during the first couple of days, the star-rated hotels did pretty well, some of the non-star-rated hotels didn’t do so well, it seems that they’re really struggling and then of course given the current financial situation, things are not quite well either. Does that make very concerning to try and put together an Expo in terms of the hotel industry?

R: There are certainly concerns within the hotel industry, particularly for the hotel operators they worry about a lot of hotels being built and not be able to sell them. But I still think, again back to the government initiative about these seventy million visitors, among them 40 to 50 million visitors need hotel accommodation. So I still think this is a good opportunity for hotel operators to manage their inventory well. The challenge is how you manage them and how you through a different channel/platform to display your rates and inventory to the worldwide, not to the limited channels. If that is the case which happened before, that limited your transparency and exposure, that created information and symmetry which caused the rates are arbitrarily high or low. So that could be avoided through a good channel arrangement this time.

Q: Yes. We should see what had happened in Beijing. While there seem to have some occupancy issues in some hotels in Beijing, people also complained a little bit about some prices for the hotels going sky high, obviously this is a supply-demand issue, but what happened?

R: Look at the Beijing Olympics, I think that attributes to two reasons for the situation you just described. One is the Organizing Committee blocked about 70% of the inventory reserved for those visitors and officials and media and so on, so there are 30% inventory in the market to be quoted to the regular visitors, and imagine when the supply and demand come in. But the problem is the Committee did not have a commend center, a system to monitor these inventory and their management in a real-time fashion. So that creates the situation when you are approaching the Olympics, and those inventories are not being sold, and we don’t know how many of them left from a citywide situation. So that created a problem for the price and for visitors. And as you know, most international visitors especially in the North American market they plan ahead, if they look ahead a year early and my family want to travel to China to look at the Olympics, but prices are so high that deters and gives no incentive to travel. And then when approaching the Olympics, a lot of rooms came out and it’s too late sometimes. The second reason for that is I think because the unexpected event or these security issues or these process issues also deter some international visitors coming here. Lastly, I think because the Olympics are sports event where people can watch through the media broadcast, you don’t have to be physically there. Those are reasons also attributing to the problems you just described.

Having varied and plentiful accommodations for everyone heading to the expo is vital. 27 months before the event kicks off, a hotel reservation center was set up by the Shanghai World Expo Coordination Bureau, to help official participants and visitors book accommodation.

Q: How can a consumer or a business be confident that the transparency that wasn’t in Beijing is going to be there for Shanghai?

R: Learning from the experience from the 2008 Olympics, the 2010 world Expo organizing committee decided to set up the official reservation-booking center, just to balance the supply demand, and then the price. Because the key for this Expo is you have to ensure 70 million visitors come here because majority of the government investment is getting back through the ticketing sale. So ticketing-sale means you have to actually be there, and also Expo is a physical experience, you cannot just see through the broadcast. So the Organizing Committee sets up the reservation center, all the hotels if you want to participate in the Expo business, you can join the platform and on that platform you can display all the rates and information and changes, all in a real-time fashion. And then this platform also connects to thousands of distribution channels, so people, anywhere in the world or within China, they can go through those travel websites, local travel agencies, and book the hotel rooms, and see all the inventories being available to them. And this also helps the government provide the guidance, for example, the peak time, the price… just like the weather forecast, it’s the price forecast. So you can allocate the traffic not all concentrated in a particular time or a national holiday. So through this technology, that really helps to match the supply and demand in a real-time fashion. Consumer will go through this experience, and even starting right now, if you book the Expo time hotel, you can see you have many more choices, and a variety of hotels and prices are different, price categories you can also compare with. Many travel agencies now are powered by HUBS1, which means they all get all the Shanghai and surrounding area hotel information. Right now we have 2,000 domestic travel agencies, 700,000 international travel agencies, so that ensures visitors worldwide and domestic, they can all get the real-time information on the hotel accommodation.

Q: How does this then ensure people are not going to be worry about those rooms getting blocked off? And they are going to be transparent, other than the fact they can compare notes by looking at what their hotels are offering price wise? Is there more assurance there that they are getting a good deal?

R: Yes. This platform, one of the rules set by the government is, as long as you want to join this platform, you are not forced to do so, but you’re encouraged to do so, you have to display your inventory in the real time and price. So you can now display inventory when people really purchase or book it, and you say “I am sold out”, those are now prohibited from happening. All the hotels joining this platform have to follow the rules and display all your products and information as it is.

Q: Is there that same transparency that going from your company to the travel agency?

R: Yes. We do not interfere any transactions. All systems are touch-less processes, so whatever supply displays, it shows on the demand side such as travel agencies’ sides, corporations, whoever uses our travel products.

Q: You guys got a lot of experience in the Special Olympics, what did you learn there that is now carrying over to bookings for the Expo?

R: The Special Olympics is very special, particularly athletes are different, and their family members. I think what we learned was it was the first time in the Special Olympics history that we provided web-based reservation systems, allowing athletes and their family members to know before they came here where they were going to stay and how they were going to access to the stadium, and what’s the transportation and all these information. I think part of the sensitivity is because you got the 163 countries, even though the scale is much less than the Olympics or the Expo, but the diversity is quite there. In terms of cultural sensitivity, how do you arrange the accommodation, religion? You don’t want to put some different religions together, as they might have conflicts if they live next to each other. So those kinds of things are quite different, and that can be applied to the Expo as well. Before we provided the web platform, it was initially started with the call center, even though we are multilingual, it is still difficult for people to describe their accommodation information on the phone. So that’s why the Internet really changes many industries, including ours. Then once we launched the web platform, instantly you see the phone call drops. And a lot of communication is so easy, and they can book the rooms for their family and friends who come to China in a real-time fashion, that’s quite different in the Special Olympics history before in terms of the hotel booking.

Q: Which hotels have you guys signed up in Shanghai? Give me a percentage, 90%, or 50%.

R: I think we have signed up almost all the star-rated hotels in Shanghai about 700 hotels, and the next step is how we get on those social hotels, 3000 hotels. They provide about 125,000 beds. How can we help them to get on the platform like us? In a regular business environment they can’t afford to join in those travel websites, because those travel websites charge high commission and for those social hotels, their rates are really very low. So since we’re less labor intensive and the incremental cost is very low. So we can have them on our platform and promote their products. And this is critical, because we are talking about 500,000 beds; almost half of them are from those social hotels. So that’s the key, how do we get those social hotels onto the platform? Otherwise, people in Wuhan, in Shenyang, or even in New York, how do they know if I am willing to want to stay in bed-and-breakfast hotel but I can’t find it. That’s the key to solve this demand of visitors and suppliers. Hopefully, we can get the government support to help the tourism committee, to help those social hotels get on the platform. That’s very important to the successful 70 million people who are going to visit here.

While the Expo will likely change the face of tourism in Shanghai, where does it go from here? The details are coming up next…

Although Beijing’s five-star hotels reaped profits in August during the 2008 Olympics, the financial windfall sputtered out the rest of the year. In fearing the same situation, Shanghai hoteliers are looking for more distribution channels and keeping an eye on the bigger market brought in by the Expo.

Q: Let’s talk a little bit about what happens post-Expo. Where do you see the tourism industry going? What do you see happening to all those hotels?

R: Overall, I’m very optimistic about the Chinese travel industry. This Expo is just a catalyst, I mean, this industry, as I just described earlier, lacks of distribution infrastructure, like the one the US had, the US had built this infrastructure 50 years ago. We did not have this infrastructure, so we want to take this Expo as a catalyst, opportunity, build the distribution infrastructure, allow the thousands of hotels, even those social hotels, can benefit from the booming travel demands. And if you look at the emerging domestic middle-class incomes, that’s a large population that potentially can be 200-300 million people which is almost the entire US population. How do we help them to find right travel products and avoid this supply-demand information asymmetry situation? That’s why this infrastructure comes in. and I think the post-Expo, once for the Expo we build this infrastructure, post-Expo can benefit a lot of players along the value chains of this travel industry, the travel agencies, and pop-and-mom shops. A lot of travel agencies, because the Internet comes up, are traditionally losing their business, and this platform right now sort of puts them back on the road, continuing to be able to compete with other online travel agencies.

Q: Yes. They were really in the past not able to keep up with the advancement of information?

R: Exactly. They lack resources, such as financial and technological resources. And for the market, for a healthy market, you don’t want to see only one or two travel agencies online or offline dominating the market. Imaged if the US only has the Expedia or travelocity.com two companies what consumers’ choices are you going to have? So the government can break up those companies, like we did in the AT&T business. But the same thing in China right now and you know you don’t have many choices when you travel to book hotels. I’m talking about booking channels. So that’s not good for consumers not good for the supply hotels. This platform built is really helpful for the post-Expo. All the hotels can have one-stop marketplace where they distribute their products, inventory, and services to thousands of channels. And consumers can also benefit from all these varieties of choices and channels, versus if you only have two choices.

Q: Do you see too, because of this and because of the way China is advancing, do you see China’s tourism and hotel industry continually growing over the next ten years?

R: Yes, I think right now even though we are affected by the financial crisis and to certain degree the swine flu that really deter some inbound travel to china, but in the long run I think particularly this Expo as a catalyst with the post-Olympic effect which is you know getting china exposure worldwide. The mini-economy will rebound I am telling if china is going to be the top travel destination, get a lot of attentions, and probably is we are ready to accommodate these people domestically and internationally. Particularly if you look at China’s national holidays, hundreds of millions of people moving around. Some need hotel accommodation and some do not, but the infrastructure in the hotel industry was not there and hopefully through this Expo it is going to be there and it is going to benefit all the companies along the value chain.

——专访张滇，汇通天下的总裁兼首席执行官

转眼2010上海世博的脚步已近，酒店业正摩拳擦掌，迎接四面八方涌入的客流。六个月间7000万人次的游客预计届时会到访世博。上海的酒店界，是否已经蓄势待发迎接挑战？六个月的世博将会提高酒店的品牌认知度。世博期间以及后世博时代，什么将会对上海旅游业的发展起到关键作用？与美国不同，中国的酒店业显然还缺乏有效的分销渠道。

到目前为止，237个参展方已经确认出席2010上海世博会，其中包括189个国家以及48个国际团体。然而有关数据显示，在预期的7000万人次的客流中仅有5%会是外国游客而国内游客将占到惊人的95%。目前酒店业界正严阵以待，迎接世博带来的行业发展的巨大商机。届时面对汹涌的客流，酒店客房能否满足市场的需求呢？后世博时代，酒店业又会采取何种措施以保持长期繁荣呢？

嘉宾介绍

张滇毕业于康奈尔大学酒店管理学院,并获得沃顿商学院的工商管理硕士学位。2005年创办汇通天下前，曾相继担任美国大型私募股权酒店投资公司德尔集团的执行董事和董事总经理等职。

世博接待的挑战

主：据估计会有7000万游客参观上海世博会，到时候真会有这么多游客吗？

嘉：我们对预估的游客量还是很有信心的。其实这可以从多方面来判断。首先，依往届的世博会来看，如1970年的日本大阪世博会就接待了6400万游客。而且上海每年接待的游客人数多达数亿，其中约有500万海外游客。

主：目前上海有325家星级酒店，到世博会开幕前将另有175家星级酒店建成完工，你觉得这一做法明智吗？

嘉：对于酒店业而言，如果仅仅是为了某一个盛会专门建造酒店，如世博会或奥运会的召开，我觉得这并非明智之举。不过从长远看，上海的商业环境不错，尤其是上海在中央政府的指导下，正逐步成为全国乃至亚洲地区的金融中心和物流中心。在过去的5到10年间，商务旅行休闲旅游人数不断增长，因此酒店业的发展潜力广阔，前景会很可观的。刚才提到的7000万游客中，约有4000至5000万游客需要住宿，所以持续半年的世博会，也将有助于酒店提升品牌和自己的知名度。酒店不仅仅是为迎接世博而建的，但世博的确提高了新建酒店的曝光率。因此世博会是酒店业蓬勃发展的良好开端。

主：目前在建的酒店完工后上海可提供大约50万张床位，但高峰时段，预计总需求会达到80万张。那么另外30万人如何解决住宿呢？

嘉：组委会预计日均游客达40万人次，高峰时段将达80万人次，上海地区约有50万床位的量，这还没有包括酒店式公寓在内，而且组委会将暂时租用大学校舍以缓解供需矛盾。而且停靠在黄浦江岸边的游轮，也能提供数千张床位。还有距离上海一两个小时车程比如上海以北的苏州以南的杭州等城市，也能提供床位满足需求。这样总共将有约80多万张床位，但在高峰期每天将有80万游客，其中60万需要住宿，其余的是国内游客，这些国内的游客居住在上海周边地区，距离上海约有一两个小时车程，所以他们是不需要住宿的。

主：至于那些正在兴建的酒店，你觉得这一举措是否合适？因为我们知道，在世博结束后酒店一定会出现大量的闲置客房的情况？

嘉：是的，但从长期来看，行业的发展还是潜力巨大的。这对未来旅游业的促进是显而易见的。因为旅游业的发展势必会对客房有巨大的需求。毫无疑问，没有哪个投资商专门为一个短期的活动兴建酒店，但从长远考虑对比一下曼哈顿旧金山以及芝加哥你就会发现上海的客房供应量远远不足。考虑到未来经济的增长以及国内涌现的中产阶层，还有时兴的家庭旅游业我坚信当下的酒店建设是一种具有相当远见的投资，特别是这次的世博良机，对于中国酒店品牌的全球推广提供了渠道的多样性。

主：我们来看看世博酒店的预订情况吧，虽然时间还早但我想一定有提前订房的吧？

嘉：我们已经接到了大约5万左右的确认预订单，有的甚至已经交了订金，还有成千上万的预定源源不断。在国外入境人员的预定方面，有很大的增长。这是因为国外游客是需要很早就开始计划的还有就是有些国家的场馆需要筹建所以预定作实际上已经开始了。至于国内的游客，他们决定旅行的时间比较短所以我们估计年底或是明年初，国内游客会开始订房，而国际游客会在今年下半年集中订房。

《惊言堂》正在专访汇通天下总裁兼首席执行官张滇。北京奥运期间，客房价以及信息透明等问题使消费者牢骚满腹。世博的召开能否带来令人欣喜的变化。稍候继续……

2008年北京奥运期间，北京奥组委在07年年底时就与120家星级酒店签订合同使其成为奥运会官方酒店。其中包括38家五星级酒店，45家四星级以及22家三星级及以下的酒店。但是实际情况却是奥运期间这些酒店的标间价格是平时价格的4至5倍。虽然奥运期间五星级酒店的入住率很高但是四星级及以下的酒店

入住率还不到一半。

主：北京奥运期间出现了酒店客房空置与价格飞涨并存的现象，显然由于供需的关系，还有别的原因吗

嘉：回顾北京奥运，我认为两个原因导致了你刚才所描述的情况。一方面组委会将原本预留给游客的大约70%的客房调配给官员和媒体等，所以只剩下30%的客房正常投放市场，那样的话供需自然会出现问题。更糟的是组委会并没有一个指挥中心用以监控和协调总体的客房情况，所以问题就出现了。你会发现奥运临近有很多客房空置并且我们还不知道全市没有预订的客房有多少。因此价格提高给游客带来了很大的不便。大多数国外游客尤其是北美游客习惯于提前制定旅行计划，比如一年前，我们全家准备去北京看奥运，由于当时预定价格太高限制了很多旅行者来中国。因此临近奥运时出现了很多空余的客房，但为时已晚。另一个方面为确保奥运期间的安全，进入中国境内的签证时间长流程相对复杂，这些因素或多或少影响了。而且奥运是一场大型的体育盛会，可以通过媒体直播来观看而不是一定要亲临现场，这些都是导致你刚才提到问题的原因。

满足世博游客多样性的入住需求是至关重要的。早在世博会开始前27个月

上海世博会事务协调局已经成立了酒店预定中心以帮助参展方及游客预定入住酒店的需求。

主：这次世博的关键在于如何保证7000万游客的顺利到访，因为大部分的政府投资需要靠门票收入来收回。这就意味着游客是要亲自前来的。

嘉：世博会更多的是亲身体验的过程，媒体的转播不能代表其全部，所以上海组委会决定成立统一的订房中心。所有想要参与世博营运的酒店只要加入这个平台就行了。通过这个平台，酒店可以在第一时间公布客房等信息，还可以公布相关信息的变化情况。这个平台同时还连接着上千个分销渠道所以不论是国内游客还是国外消费者都可以。通过旅游等网站旅行社等来预订客房了解详细信息。政府也可以在价格以及高峰时段预估方面给予实时的指导和监管，就像天气预报那样。这个平台可以帮助政府进行价格预报，这样的话就可以保证交通顺畅，不至于像节假日那样出现拥挤阻塞。通过必要的科技支持，就可以第一时间保证供需的匹配，消费者到时将会体验到这个订房的过程，其实现在就可以体验。如果你现在要预定世博期间的客房，你会发现有很多种不同的选择不同的酒店，不同的价格范围

你都可以去比较的。现在有许多旅行社都是通过我们企业来了解上海以及周边地区酒店预定方面的实时信息。现在我们连接着国内2000多家旅行社以及70多万家国际旅行社，这就保证了全球游客都可以及时了解相关客房的预订信息。

主：这样能保证不会出现北京奥运时故意预留客房的情况么？能否保证网上的客房信息透明准确而不是酒店之间可以互相比价？如何确保消费者的利益得到保护？

张：是的。政府就这一信息平台专门做出了有关规定，那就是所有酒店都必须是自愿参加，但是政府是持鼓励态度的所有参与方都必须第一时间提供详细信息价格等，这样的话就不会出现游客看到客房信息后却被告知已经被预定的情况。所有参与酒店都必须真实有效的提供详细产品及服务信息。

主：旅行社从你们平台得到的酒店信息也是完全透明的吗?

张：是的.我们不会直接参与信息的发布,所有信息发布的内容我们都是无权更改的.无论客房市场供应情况如何,旅行社都会看到实时的相应信息.

主：你们从2007年特奥会订房过程中积累的哪些经验可以运用到这次世博客房预订的操作中？

张：特奥会的确很特殊，尤其是运动员的特殊性以及他们的家庭成员。我们在特奥会的历史上第一次实现了网络预订，在他们出发前就可以了解出行、交通以及住宿的相关情况。有一个需要注意的方面就是有163个国家的运动员参加，尽管和奥运或者世博来比，其规模还相去甚远，但这种多元的因素还是会带来很大的挑战。文化方面的多元要求你合理妥善的安排运动员们的食宿以及宗教信仰方面的考虑。比如让两个不同宗教的人住在隔壁显然不合适，冲突是难免的，所以有些事情是要很小心的。这些因素也是世博订房中需要考虑的。在我们建立网络平台之前，刚开始时只是一个信息呼叫中心，虽然也提供多语种服务，但还是无法顺畅有效的。在电话上沟通有关信息，这就是网络为什么会改变很多其他产业格局的原因。同样也包括酒店业，一旦我们建立了业内的网络信息平台，电话的咨询量就会骤减。

主：上海有多少酒店已经加入到这一信息平台中了？给我个大概的数据,90%还是只有50%?

张：我们已经和上海几乎所有的星级酒店签订了合同。下一步是如何将我们的服务扩展到大约3000多家非星级酒店。非星级住宿能提供大约12万5千张床位。如何使之也能加入快速有效的信息平台，由于他们的传统经营模式，通常无力承担一些旅行网站的高额收费，因为这些住宿本身的价格不高。我们不是一个劳动密集型平台，扩大再生产的成本相对较低，这部分住宿可以利用我们的平台推广自己，这其实很重要。因为上海最终要提供大约50万张床位的话，将近一半来自于非星级住宿因此如何有效利用这部分住宿是我们工作的重中之重。否则，来自武汉或者沈阳甚至是纽约的游客如果想入住提供早餐的家庭住宿，将无法找到相关信息，这部分住宿信息加入平台后可以帮助缓解供需矛盾，希望政府或旅游协会可以出面协助实现这部分非星级住宿的信息平台化。

对于成功确保7000万人次参观上海世博是至关重要的，世博无疑会大大改变上海旅游业的现状，上海旅游业的未来将何去何从？稍候继续……

虽然北京奥运期间五星级酒店收益颇丰，但之后却受金融危机的影响入住率大幅下滑。为了避免重蹈覆辙，上海的酒店业者们在享受世博带来的巨大商机的同时将着眼于开发多样化的分销路径。中国的经济环境使得酒店业将以前所未有的速度发展。

主：旅游业将呈现出怎样的发展态势？酒店业会继续快速发展吗？

张：从总体上看，我觉得旅游业发展前景广阔。上海世博会只是催化剂，正如我先前提到的，我国旅游业缺少发布信息的平台。相比之下，美国在50年前就有此类平台，所以借本届上海世博会这一契机来完成信息平台的建设，使成千上万家酒店包括那些经济型旅馆能够从旅游业的巨大需求中获益。若你关注我国的中产阶级就会发现这是这一群体人数众多约有2到3亿左右，相当于整个美国的人口。如何避免供求双方信息不对称，使这部分人获取合适的旅游产品信息平台就是为了解决这一问题。我认为即使世博会闭幕后，对旅游产业链上的各个环节来说，比如旅行社，家庭旅馆等这个平台也会有利于它们的发展。近年来由于互联网的普及，传统模式下的旅行社举步维艰，而这个平台会帮助他们重新开始与网上旅行社竞争。

主：传统模式下的旅行社现在是不是已经无法紧跟信息时代的发展？

张：是的。因为他们缺乏有效资源，如融资渠道，先进技术等。在健康的市场环境下人们并不乐意见到只有一两家网上旅行社或传统旅行社独占整个市场。如果美国旅游业只有在线旅行社Expedia或travelocity.com这两家的话，那么消费者的选择面会很窄，这就是为什么美国政府分拆美国电话电报公司的原因。中国目前的处境也有类似之处。预订酒店时，中国消费者的选择余地并不大，这里我是指缺乏预订酒店的渠道，这对消费者来说不是件好事，同样也不利于酒店业的发展。世博会后，这个平台将有利于整个行业发展，在“一站式”的市场信息平台上，各类酒店都能展示产品服务，客房空置率等。与只有两家酒店可供选择相比消费者也能从这些信息中受益。

主：如果这个信息平台建立起来，加上中国的飞速发展，未来十年内，中国的旅游业、酒店业前景会如何呢？

张：目前尽管受金融危机、猪流感等影响，来中国旅行的境外游客骤减。但从长远来看，本届世博会的催化作用加上“后奥运影响”，世界对中国的关注度越来越高。一旦中国经济出现反弹，不久后中国就会成为世界一流的旅游目的地，会倍受全球的关注的。那么酒店业的挑战就会是如何让来自世界和全国各地的游客都能找到满意的住宿。如果关心国内国定假日出游情况，你会发现有几亿游客在此期间流动，其中部分游客需要投宿酒店。但由于酒店业缺乏基础设施，因此无法满足这些需求。希望通过世博会这些酒店分销的基础设施会逐步完善起来，使酒店产业链上各类企业都获益。

主：非常感谢你的参与！

张：很荣幸，非常感谢！

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